Participatory Causal Loop Diagrams Building for Supporting Decision-Makers Integrating Flood Risk Management in an Urban Regeneration Process.

Several modeling tools commonly used for supporting flood risk assessment and management are highly effective in representing physical phenomena, but provide a rather limited understanding of the multiple implications that flood risk and flood risk reduction measures have on highly complex systems such as urban areas. In fact, most of the available modeling tools do not fully account for this complexity-and related uncertainty-which heavily affects the interconnections between urban systems evolution and flood risk, ultimately resulting in an ineffective flood risk management. The present research proposes an innovative methodological framework to support decision-makers involved in an urban regeneration process at a planning/strategic level, accounting for the multi-dimensional implications of flood risk and of different flood risk management strategies. The adopted approach is based on the use of System Thinking principles and participatory System Dynamics modeling techniques, and pursues an integration between scientific and stakeholder knowledge. Reference is made to one of the case studies of the CUSSH and CAMELLIA projects, namely Thamesmead (London), a formerly inhospitable marshland currently undergoing a process of urban regeneration, and perceived as being increasingly vulnerable to flooding. It represents an interesting opportunity for building a replicable modeling approach to integrate urban development dynamics with flood risk, ultimately supporting policy and decision-makers in identifying mitigation/prevention measures and understanding how they could help achieve multi-dimensional benefits (e.g., environmental, social and economic).

Co-producing knowledge on the use of urban natural space: Participatory system dynamics modelling to understand a complex urban system.

Decision-makers are increasingly asked to act differently in how they respond to complex urban challenges, recognising the value in bringing together and integrating cross-disciplinary, cross-sectoral knowledge to generate effective solutions. Participatory modelling allows to bring stakeholders together, enhance knowledge and understanding of a system, and identify the impacts of interventions to a given problem. This paper uses an interdisciplinary and systems approach to investigate a complex urban problem, using a participatory System Dynamics modelling process as an approach to facilitate learning and co-produce knowledge on the factors influencing the use of urban natural space. Stakeholders used a Systems Dynamics model and interface, as a tool to collectively identify pathways for improving the use of space and simulating their impacts. Under the lens of knowledge co-production, the paper reflects how such mechanisms can lead to the co-production of knowledge and social learning. The findings also contribute to identify ways of increasing the value of urban natural space focusing on urban areas undergoing physical and social transformation, such as the Thamesmead case study, London, UK.

Evaluating natural capital performance of urban development through system dynamics: A case study from London.

Natural capital plays a central role in urban functioning, reducing flooding, mitigating urban heat island effects, reducing air pollution, and improving urban biodiversity through provision of habitat space. There is also evidence on the role played by blue and green space in improving physical and mental health, reducing the burden on the health care service. Yet from an urban planning and development view, natural capital may be considered a nice to have, but not essential element of urban design; taking up valuable space which could otherwise be used for traditional built environment uses. While urban natural capital is largely recognised as a positive element, its benefits are difficult to measure both in space and time, making its inclusion in urban (re)development difficult to justify. Here, using a London case study and information provided by key stakeholders, we present a system dynamics (SD) modelling framework to assess the natural capital performance of development and aid design evaluation. A headline indicator: Natural Space Performance, is used to evaluate the capacity of natural space to provide ecosystem services, providing a semi-quantitative measure of system wide impacts of change within a combined natural, built and social system. We demonstrate the capacity of the model to explore how combined or individual changes in development design can affect natural capital and the provision of ecosystem services, for example, biodiversity or flood risk. By evaluating natural capital and ecosystem services over time, greater justification for their inclusion in planning and development can be derived, providing support for increased blue and green space within cities, improving urban sustainability and enhancing quality of life. Furthermore, the application of a SD approach captures key interactions between variables over time, showing system evolution while highlighting intervention opportunities.

The wicked problem of waste management: An attention-based analysis of stakeholder behaviours.

Surging amounts of waste are reported globally and especially in lower-income countries, with negative consequences for health and the environment. Increasing concern has been raised for the limited progress achieved in practice by diverse sets of policies and programmes. Waste management is a wicked problem characterised by multilayered interdependencies, complex social dynamics and webs of stakeholders. Interactions among these generate unpredictable outcomes that can be missed by decision makers through their understanding and framing of their context. This article aims to identify possible sources of persistent problems by focussing on what captures, shapes and limits the attention of stakeholders and decision-makers, drawing on the attention-based view from organisation theory. The theory describes the process through which issues and opportunities are noticed and how these are translated into actions, by focussing on the influencers at the individual, organisational and context scale. Views on issues and opportunities for waste management were collected in a series of fieldwork activities from 60 participants representing seven main types of stakeholders in the typical lower-middle income Kenyan city of Kisumu. Through a thematic analysis guided by the attention-based view, we identified patterns and misalignment of views, especially between government, community-based organisations and residents, which may contribute to persistent waste problems in Kisumu. Some point to detrimental waste handling practices, from separation to collection and treatment, as the main cause of issues. For others, these practices are due to a poor control of such practices and enforcement of the law. This study's major theoretical contribution is extending the application of attention theory to multi-stakeholder problems and to non-formalized organisations, namely residents and to the new field of waste management. This novel lens contributes a greater understanding of waste issues and their management in Africa that is relevant to policy and future research. By revealing the "wickedness" of the waste problem, we point to the need for a holistic and systems-based policy approach to limit further unintended consequences.

Evidence-informed urban health and sustainability governance in two Chinese cities.

Sustainable development is best supported by intersectoral policies informed by a range of evidence and knowledge types (e.g. scientific and lay). Given China's rapid urbanisation, scale and global importance in climate mitigation, this study investigates how evidence is perceived and used to inform urban health and sustainability policies at central and local levels. Well-informed senior professionals in government/scientific agencies (12 in Beijing and 11 in Ningbo) were interviewed. A thematic analysis is presented using deductive and inductive coding. Government agency participants described formal remits and processes determining the scope and use of evidence by different tiers of government. Academic evidence was influential when commissioned by government departments. Public opinion and economic priorities were two factors that also influenced the use or weight of evidence in policymaking. This study shows that scientific evidence produced or commissioned by government was routinely used to inform urban health and sustainability policy. Extensive and routine data collection is regularly used to inform cyclical policy processes, which improves adaptive capacity. This study contributes to knowledge on the 'cultures of evidence use'. Environmental governance can be further improved through increased data-sharing and use of diverse knowledge types.

Relationship-building around a policy decision-support tool for urban health.

Contemporary challenges linked to public health and climate change demand more effective decision-making and urban planning practices, in particular by taking greater account of evidence. In order to do this, trust-building relationships between scientists and urban practitioners through collaborative research programmes is required. Based on a policy-relevant research project, Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health (CUSSH), this project aims to support the transformation of cities to meet environmental imperatives and to improve health with a quantitative health impact assessment. A case study in Rennes, France, focuses on the role of a policy decision-support tool in the production and use of knowledge to support evidence-informed decision-making. Although the primary objective of informing decision-making through evidence-based science is not fulfilled, the use of a decision-making support tool can lay the foundations for relationship-building. It can serve as a support for boundary-spanning activities, which are recognised for their effectiveness in linking science to action. This case study illustrates that the path of knowledge transfer from science to policy can be challenging, and the usefulness of using models may not be where it was thought to have been.

Developing a programme theory for a transdisciplinary research collaboration: Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health.

Background: Environmental improvement is a priority for urban sustainability and health and achieving it requires transformative change in cities. An approach to achieving such change is to bring together researchers, decision-makers, and public groups in the creation of research and use of scientific evidence. Methods: This article describes the development of a programme theory for Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health (CUSSH), a four-year Wellcome-funded research collaboration which aims to improve capacity to guide transformational health and environmental changes in cities. Results: Drawing on ideas about complex systems, programme evaluation, and transdisciplinary learning, we describe how the programme is understood to "work" in terms of its anticipated processes and resulting changes. The programme theory describes a chain of outputs that ultimately leads to improvement in city sustainability and health (described in an 'action model'), and the kinds of changes that we expect CUSSH should lead to in people, processes, policies, practices, and research (described in a 'change model'). Conclusions: Our paper adds to a growing body of research on the process of developing a comprehensive understanding of a transdisciplinary, multiagency, multi-context programme. The programme theory was developed collaboratively over two years. It involved a participatory process to ensure that a broad range of perspectives were included, to contribute to shared understanding across a multidisciplinary team. Examining our approach allowed an appreciation of the benefits and challenges of developing a programme theory for a complex, transdisciplinary research collaboration. Benefits included the development of teamworking and shared understanding and the use of programme theory in guiding evaluation. Challenges included changing membership within a large group, reaching agreement on what the theory would be 'about', and the inherent unpredictability of complex initiatives.

Transforming cities for sustainability: A health perspective.

Transformational change is urgently needed to address planetary health challenges in cities. Through an interdisciplinary overview of the literature, we consider how to frame and unpack city-level transformation towards synergistic benefits for urban health and environmental sustainability. By describing the characteristics of a 'healthy sustainable city' and by bringing together the ideas underlying frameworks for health and sustainability, we develop a conceptual understanding of how cities may progress towards achieving significant improvements in health and the environment. We investigate how urban change works, and build a theoretical understanding of how urban change may be directed to integrate health and sustainability. We conclude that urban transformation needs to be a multi-scalar process across city sectors to meet the scale, speed and form of change required. We propose that this can best be achieved in practice through a composition of mechanisms, including strengthening city governance, enabling technological and social innovations, applying sustainable urban planning and infrastructure development, and impelling social behaviour change; supported by systems-driven policy and practice-focused scientific evidence.

The CUSSH programme: supporting cities' transformational change towards health and sustainability.

This paper describes a global research programme on the complex systemic connections between urban development and health. Through transdisciplinary methods the Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health (CUSSH) project will develop critical evidence on how to achieve the far-reaching transformation of cities needed to address vital environmental imperatives for planetary health in the 21st Century. CUSSH's core components include: (i) a review of evidence on the effects of climate actions (both mitigation and adaptation) and factors influencing their implementation in urban settings; (ii) the development and application of methods for tracking the progress of cities towards sustainability and health goals; (iii) the development and application of models to assess the impact on population health, health inequalities, socio-economic development and environmental parameters of urban development strategies, in order to support policy decisions; (iv) iterative in-depth engagements with stakeholders in partner cities in low-, middle- and high-income settings, using systems-based participatory methods, to test and support the implementation of the transformative changes needed to meet local and global health and sustainability objectives; (v) a programme of public engagement and capacity building. Through these steps, the programme will provide transferable evidence on how to accelerate actions essential to achieving population-level health and global climate goals through, amongst others, changing cities' energy provision, transport infrastructure, green infrastructure, air quality, waste management and housing.

A tool for assessing the climate change mitigation and health impacts of environmental policies: the Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT).

Background: A growing number of cities, including Greater London, have set ambitious targets, including detailed policies and implementation plans, to reach global goals on sustainability, health, and climate change. Here we present a tool for a rapid assessment of the magnitude of impact of specific policy initiatives to reach these targets. The decision-support tool simultaneously quantifies the environmental and health impacts of specified selected policies. Methods: The 'Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT)' tool was applied to Greater London. CRAFT quantifies the effects of ten environmental policies on changes in (1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, (2) exposures to environmental hazards, (3) travel-related physical activity, and (4) mortality (the number of attributable deaths avoided in one typical year). Publicly available data and epidemiological evidence were used to make rapid quantitative estimates of these effects based on proportional reductions in GHG emissions and environmental exposures from current baseline levels and to compute the mortality impacts. Results: The CRAFT tool estimates that, of roughly 50,000 annual deaths in Greater London, the modelled hazards (PM 2.5 (from indoor and outdoor sources), outdoor NO 2, indoor radon, cold, overheating) and low travel-related physical activity are responsible for approximately 10,000 premature environment-related deaths. Implementing the selected polices could reduce the annual mortality number by about 20% (~1,900 deaths) by 2050. The majority of these deaths (1,700) may be avoided through increased uptake in active travel. Thus, out of ten environmental policies, the 'active travel' policy provides the greatest health benefit. Also, implementing the ten policies results in a GHG reduction of around 90%. Conclusions: The CRAFT tool quantifies the effects of city policies on reducing GHG emissions, decreasing environmental health hazards, and improving public health. The tool has potential value for policy makers through providing quantitative estimates of health impacts to support and prioritise policy options.

Use of Urban Health Indicator Tools by Built Environment Policy- and Decision-Makers: a Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis.

Global initiatives have raised awareness of the need for cross-departmental and cross-sectoral activities to support urban health, sustainability, and equity, with respective indicators routinely used as a way to catalyze and monitor action toward pre-defined goals. Despite the existence of at least 145 urban health indicator (UHI) tools globally, there has been very little research on the use of indicators by policy- and decision-makers; more attention has been devoted to their development and validation. This paper describes the second part of a two-part systematic review of the characteristics (part A) and use (part B, this part) of UHI tools by municipal built environment policy- and decision-makers. Part B is a narrative synthesis of studies on the use of UHI tools. This PRISMA-P compliant review follows a mixed methods sequential explanatory design. The search was conducted using seven bibliographic databases, grey literature searches, and key journal hand searches. Ten studies describing the use of ten UHI tools in seven countries were included in the narrative synthesis, resulting in development of a theory of change (ToC). We found that both expert-led and participatory indicator projects can be underpinned by research evidence and residents' knowledge. Our findings contradict the dominant view of indicator use in policy-making as a linear process, highlighting a number of technical, organizational, political, knowledge, and contextual factors that affect their use. Participatory UHI tools with community involvement were generally more effective at supporting "health in all policies" and "whole-of-society" approaches to governing healthy cities than expert-led processes. UHI tool producers proposed a range of techniques to address urban health complexity characteristics. Finally, in combining data from both parts of the review, we found that potentially important UHI tool features, such as neighbourhood-scale data, were influential in the use of indicators by built environment policy- and decision-makers.

Correction to: Use of Urban Health Indicator Tools by Built Environment Policy- and Decision-Makers: a Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis.

There were errors in this article as originally published.

Urban Health Indicator Tools of the Physical Environment: a Systematic Review.

Urban health indicator (UHI) tools provide evidence about the health impacts of the physical urban environment which can be used in built environment policy and decision-making. Where UHI tools provide data at the neighborhood (and lower) scale they can provide valuable information about health inequalities and environmental deprivation. This review performs a census of UHI tools and explores their nature and characteristics (including how they represent, simplify or address complex systems) to increase understanding of their potential use by municipal built environment policy and decision-makers. We searched seven bibliographic databases, four key journals and six practitioner websites and conducted Google searches between January 27, 2016 and February 24, 2016 for UHI tools. We extracted data from primary studies and online indicator systems. We included 198 documents which identified 145 UHI tools comprising 8006 indicators, from which we developed a taxonomy. Our taxonomy classifies the significant diversity of UHI tools with respect to topic, spatial scale, format, scope and purpose. The proportions of UHI tools which measure data at the neighborhood and lower scale, and present data via interactive maps, have both increased over time. This is particularly relevant to built environment policy and decision-makers, reflects growing analytical capability and offers the potential for improved understanding of the complexity of influences on urban health (an aspect noted as a particular challenge by some indicator producers). The relation between urban health indicators and health impacts attributable to modifiable environmental characteristics is often indirect. Furthermore, the use of UHI tools in policy and decision-making appears to be limited, thus raising questions about the continued development of such tools by multiple organisations duplicating scarce resources. Further research is needed to understand the requirements of built environment policy and decision-makers, public health professionals and local communities regarding the form and presentation of indicators which support their varied objectives.